Friday 25 September 2015

Don't look at the polls!..........yet.


Throw them out, burn them, use them to wrap your fish 'n' chips in. If you have been reading a newspaper over the last few days, then you have do doubt come across a poll somewhere that shows you how much of a disaster Corbyn will be.


There was a poll which showed Corbyn did not receive the usual 'bounce' or 'jump' in the opinion polls. A comparison was made between previous leaders showing the following;

  • Tony Blair received an  +18% bounce
  • Gordon Brown received a +16% bounce
  • Ed Milliband received a +19% bounce
  • Jeremy Corbyn received a -3% drop!


And so this goes to "Prove" that Corbyn will be unsuccessful. Clearly there is a link between your initial bounce in the opinion polls and winning elections. The three previous leaders all received a substantial bounce and they all won their respective elections didn't they? Oh, perhaps the correlation isn't as simple as the media serve it up to us.



Another poll/study by the Newstatesman claims to show the huge and terrifying gulf between the opinions of Jeremy Corbyn supporters when compared to current Labour voters. They ask questions like "Are you very or fairly left wing" and "do you think the government should do more to help the poor and tax everyone else to do this" On first glance this could be worrying for Corbynites across the land, but here at Lefthub we say RELAX!

Do we not remember how Corbyn got to this point? Do we not remember where he came from to get to this point? Did we even really know who Corbyn was before the leadership race began?

Jeremy Corbyn is not the kind of spun, polished politician we are used to. He doesn't come up with the kind of sound bites that the press can latch on to and create a big splash. Instead what Corbyn does is present a set of very clear principles. People respect his principles first and then they begin to listen. Over time he plants many ideas and questions into peoples minds, people start to form their own opinions, own ideas, realise their own principles and slowly but surely warm to Corbyn. This is why his support are so loyal, so engaged and so energised. They want to get out there, they want to hear him speak and they want to be part of it. Jeremy Corbyn is creating a movement, much bigger than just himself, its not the popularity contest politics we are used to.

To prove this organic growth lets go back and look at the Newstatesman's piece from 22nd June. Again in this they look at Labour supporters and show in their poll that Jeremy Corbyn was backed by just 9% and he was described as a "token leftie". Over time the polls shifted and the "token leftie" became the frontrunner. He won with around 60% of the vote.

Slowly but surely, more people will hear Jeremy speak. More people will realise their own principles. More people will form their own ideas and we would not be surprised if more poeple feel drawn to Corbyn. This really is a marathon not a sprint and Jeremy Corbyns style is suited to that perfectly.








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Monday 21 September 2015

Lets Reform Money!

Reforms. A term coined by the Tories to help implement round after round of ideological policies. So far we have reformed the welfare people of this country receive, including cutting the Tax Credits of workers, which apparently will "make work pay". We are trying to reform or "modernise" Trade Unions by making it almost impossible to hold a legal strike. We have reformed local councils by slashing an smashing their budgets. The list of these "reforms" goes on.

The most recent suggested "reform" has come from Andy Haldane the chief economist at the Bank of England.

This time adopting the same mantra as the Trade Union Bill, Haldane has suggested we could "Modernise" Money in the UK by getting rid of cash and replacing it with "Digital currency". Oh this sounds exciting, futuristic and a real step forward you may think. That is until you dig deeper and understand the motives behind this modernisation. This brainwave comes just after the Bank of England announced it may be necessary to implement a negative interest rate. This would mean that when you normally receive your interest payments on your account, instead you would be deducted the interest rate.


How will this effect you? Well if you have done what the government describes as "the right thing" and managed to save, then sit back and watch them savings decline. Remember there is no cash any more so you wont be able to rush to the bank to take that money out. If you find yourself in the position, as so many do in this country, that you come to the end of the month and reach 0 or less in your account then get spending! Your going to have to spend your money quickly as you probably can't afford for any money to be taken from your account. Again remember you can't go and withdraw it in cash as it simply does not exist any more.

The obstacles to implementing a cashless society are enormous. Just about everyone uses cash at some point in their lives. Catching a bus or a taxi, paying the window cleaner or milk man, shopping at the market or car boot sale. There are just too many examples in which people and businesses rely on cash and where replacing it would both be expensive and impractical.

All of this is designed to give the economy a boost, get people spending instead of saving and spending faster. It is a strategy that can work in the short term, but leads to long term problems if it remains. There are other ways to boost the economy after all, such as investment in infrastructure and creating jobs. So perhaps this is one "reform" we just don't need. Perhaps we can do without this sort of "modernisation". Perhaps we need to seek alternative radical solutions. Perhaps its time to talk to Richard Murphy about Corbynomics. Perhaps.




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Tuesday 15 September 2015

You Spin Me Right Round........

So here we are. A few days into Corbyn's leadership and we have already seen the start of the attacks by the Tories. Within hours the following had been posted by the official Conservative twitter account.

Many have compared it to a play straight out of a Nazi propaganda handbook. The key part and theme of all the propaganda going out there is the phrase "Threat to National Security". This highlights the clear strategy taken by the Tories to once again spread the message of fear. Fear was the tool they employed in the general election and it has brought them great success so far. The campaign of fear can reach all aspects of society, a message that can be tailored to everyone.
  • Vote Tory or the economy will be in danger
  • Vote Tory or your Job will be at risk
  • Vote Tory or we will raise your taxes, and so on....

The message of fear being spread about Jeremy is generally being deployed through using half quotes. Look at the quotes in the image above. "He believes the death of Osama Bin Laden was a 'tragedy' " . A similar statement was made by former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown. What was actually meant, is that an execution like this, without putting someone on trial and being made to answer for their crimes is a tragedy of justice. 
"He describes terrorists as friends". Jeremy Corbyn has repeatedly been an advocate of peace processes rather than wars. He has said you need to reach out and talk to people you don't like or agree with in order for long term peace. 
"He opposes nuclear defences" In fact he opposes all nuclear weapons, surely a principled approach.

More examples of spin are coming quick and fast. Misquoting, reporting rumours as facts or presenting half a statement as a full belief. One thing is for sure, these attacks are not going to stop. Fortunately, and with the help of social media, this kind of spin is being exposed for what it really is. The campaign of fear can only be overcome by a campaign of hope. Fear tends mostly to make people reluctant to act a certain way, yet hope makes people passionate and enthusiastic about causes. This was demonstrated with the Corbyn campaign and people must get behind the message of hope and spread it further.

All this spin and attacks for someone who is regarded "Unelectable". Or at least that's what they tell us...............




Follow us @lefthub    There will be plenty to discuss in the days, weeks and months to come!

Tuesday 8 September 2015

Twenty's Plenty.........

This is what we are told is enough to "fulfill our moral responsibility". Twenty thousand refugees spread over just 5 years is enough for everyone to get a good nights sleep, safe in the knowledge that Mr Cameron has done his sums and this is as much as we morally need to do. Well here at LeftHub we have been looking at the sums.

The BBC reported in this article that for the year ending September 2014 that net migration to the UK was 298,000. This works out at around 816 people a day. If we take that 20,000 over 5 years means 4,000 a year then this is equivalent to 5 days worth of net migration to the UK, an increase of 1.34% a year.

David Cameron has claimed that the resettlement scheme the UK would adopt would make a priority of vulnerable children such as orphans. But it has emerged that all those within the scheme will only have the right to remain in the UK for five years. As former leader of the Liberal Democrats Lord Ashdown suggested on Twitter, this could mean people aged 18 being deported from Britain, having integrated into society.



Perhaps this is the sensible approach using both our "hearts and our heads" which was a phrase uttered countless times by the Prime Minister yesterday. He said we must both tackle the refugee crisis and the source of the problem, Isis and the Assad regime, hinting at more military intervention in Syria. This would be fine if were to completely ignore the fact that our intervention in the middle east has helped promote the rise of Isis. We also supply millions upon millions worth of weaponry to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and other surrounding areas. Surely its conceivable that this could also be fueling and indirectly arming Isis. We must wonder why David Cameron seems reluctant to bring this up as a possible contributory factor. The UK has after all granted 37 export licenses for military goods for Saudi Arabia since 25 March 2015.

So is the UK doing enough? Is this the best we can do?  The mood and generosity of the British public certainly doesn't seem to be reflected by that of the government. Perhaps we can squeeze more than 5 days of extra migration to the UK out, to help those in desperate need?








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Friday 4 September 2015

You Cant Just Print Money!!!!!!!!!...........or can you?


Last Night we saw the final televised Labour leadership hustings. So lets have a look at each candidate and their strategy.



Liz Kendall

Liz has adopted an approach that if we basically say we will do all the things the Tories do, but we will do them nicer, then we will win more votes. I think she has come up with this philosophy by looking at the Tories recent triumph in the general election and deciding that everyone now has Tory values and to win, Labour must blur the line between the two parties even more than it already is. There is no doubt her heart is int the right the place but her strategy will ultimately let her down.



Andy Burnham


Andy is one of my favorite politicians at the moment. Not because of his policies but because I can't help imagining him being created in a secret laboratory and being programmed to be the perfect New Labour candidate. Even when he smiles it seems like hes activated a programme in his software to do so. He often says very passionately that he wants things to change without every committing to any policies on how to change them. He takes aspects of Brown in that he often starts his speeches at hustings with that famous phrase "I agree with (insert politician here)" Unfortunately for Andy he seems the ultimate yes man who will do or say anything for a bit of applause. One moment hes on Jeremy's side if the mood seems right and the next he thinks Jeremy is incredible if that seems like that could win people over. I think Andy will ultimately struggle from this flip flopping as his own credibility and lack of clear vision suffers. With a little more tuning the BurnhamBot v2.0 could do better.


Jeremy Corbyn

Jeremy is without a doubt the front runner at this stage. His honesty of opinion and clear socialist values are drawing people in. Jeremy is breaking the mold of the last 20 years by doing the forbidden and stepping outside the safety box of the center ground. He is not afraid to give his opinion on things and people can see he genuinely wants to help all those he can. He is the only candidate that is clearly stating that he wants to oppose the whole ideology of austerity and has put forward clear proposals in order to achieve this. The vision of hope is very powerful and will keep bringing success. People want to dream of a better tomorrow and not just a slightly less crappy one.


Yvette Cooper

Yvette did well last night. But she is finding success not by putting forward plans herself but by being the biggest and most hostile critic of Jeremy. Its seems as though a campaign advisor has come forward and told her to show in the phrase "You cant just print money!" as often as she possibly could as this will make the public panic. She is of course wrong. You can print money. Labour pumped around £370 billion into the banks, Japan has been pumping billions in for years the EU is near to the start of a 1 trillion euro programme and the US has only just stopped. None of these have or will result in the kind of hyperinflation she tell us to be worried about. Instead of criticizing the economic plan Jeremy puts forward, perhaps she should read the excellent Richard Murphy's Blog the well respected Tax campaigner and economist behind Jeremy's proposals. Yvette has definitely gained some ground over the last week or so but mostly by criticizing the front runner rather than putting forward a clear vision herself.

Whatever happens after this election one thing is for sure. A movement of the left has been born and whoever wins must ensure that the passion and drive of that movement is captured and not focus entirely of the Conservative-Labour swing voters. It seems there is a real opportunity for the Labour party and the country here, lets hope it doesn't all come to nothing as it could be a generation before this opportunity comes again.








Look out for more blogs coming soon!

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